SA’s future energy security at risk if draft IRP2018 adopted
The “blueprint” for SA’s energy security, Draft IRP2018, is profoundly flawed. It is based on faulty assumptions and will make prosperity impossible.
Find out why.
Speaker Dr. Anthonie Cilliers Pr.Eng - PhD (Nuclear Engineering) and M.Eng (Computer & Electronic)
Supplementary Comments FMF executive director Leon Louw
The Draft 2018 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2018) has split the energy community apart in an ugly acrimonious debate, including personal attacks and accusations of malicious dishonesty.
Whether or not to adopt IRP2018 is probably the most important decision of the decade. International experience shows that without sufficient affordable electricity, there can be no prosperity. IRP2018 will determine the how electricity is generated for decades, and whether South Africa will have enough reliable energy at low enough prices to facilitate investment, economic growth, job creation, transformation and poverty alleviation.
As its vital contribution to the achievement of an optimal “energy mix”, the Free Market Foundation (FMF), which has emerged as an important role-player, is hosting several presentations and debates, with speakers representing opposing views.
Dr. Celliers will argue that:
- The IRP2018 is flawed in profound and fatal respects, based on faulty assumptions about inter alia:
- the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE),
- the cost of finance, and
- the environmental impact of “renewables”.
- It calls on the government to put all its energy eggs in a single highly dubious energy basket in an uncertain world, instead of a rationally balanced energy mix.
- Its vision is of permanent economic stagnation and unemployment, instead of prosperity for all.
- It envisages rendering our immense coal and nuclear wealth valueless, and reliance instead on inefficient, costly and unreliable imported technology, gas and hydro-power.
Leon Louw will suppliant Dr Cilliers’s address with a brief outline of the case for free or relatively free energy markets. He will distinguish between support for private independent power producers (IPPs), on one hand, and unpatriotic government driven, heavily subsidized, environmentally unfriendly procurement deals.
There is a powerful correlation between energy and prosperity: a country cannot prosper without substantial, affordable, reliable and dispatchable energy at the lowest effective end user cost. For South Africa to achieve sufficient economic growth to bring prosperity to all will require huge amounts of extra electricity. Without that, we are doomed to perpetual economic stagnation, poverty, inequality and unemployment.
A specialist in nuclear technology, safety and economics and widely published author on the future of SA’s electricity supply, Dr Anthonie Cilliers is a professional engineer and nuclear instrumentation and control specialist with a PhD in Nuclear Engineering and M.Eng (Computer & Electronic) degree. He has 16 years’ experience in plant instrumentation and control (I&C) systems specializing in deterministic as well as probabilistic plant diagnostic systems, applying his trade in both the electricity distribution and generation sectors throughout the years. Anthonie has more than 11 years’ experience in nuclear specific instrumentation and control systems, nuclear research and development (R&D) and Nuclear Knowledge Management. For the last 10 years Anthonie has shared his experience in the nuclear and energy field by lecturing various Master’s degree modules covering topics such as nuclear technology, safety and economics. Cilliers is an active participant the energy discourse and debate.